Chris Forrester, on 28-08-2008
With 2007’s sales being so poor, a forecast of 400% increase for this year’s Blu-ray sales effort isn’t perhaps quite such a spectacular number. However, with a surfeit of classic as well as more recent Hollywood titles being planned for release this side of Christmas, forecasters are taking an optimistic view of Blu-ray’s prospects.
The consensus, drawn by researchers at Futuresource, seems to be that consumers will buy close to 45 million Blu-ray discs in the US this year (more than 400% up on last year). On big titles, the share of total sales being taken by BD has already hit five to six per cent and by Q4 it is possible we’ll see a 10% or even 12% share for some of the really big hitters.

In Europe, awareness and uptake are still lower overall, although in the key markets the retailers and the studios are reacting to an uplift in interest this year and are gearing up for a good end to 2008. “We expect 2% of unit sales in the lead markets of the UK and France to be on BD this year and this is likely to hit 5-6% next year,” says Mai Hoang, a lead analyst in the Futuresource Home Video team.

By 2012, between 40% and 50% of consumer expenditure on video discs will be allocated to Blu-ray according to this latest analysis from Futuresource. What has been disappointing to date for the content companies has been the lack of catalogue title sales, although the studios are showing no signs of reducing their interest in catalogue product. “All eyes are on Warner’s initiative to cut catalogue prices,” continues Hoang. “Other studios and the retailers are going to be watching consumer reaction to this very carefully.”

“What has impressed me most,” says Jim Bottoms, MD of Futuresource, “is the way the retailers are supporting BD and how much space they are giving over to Blu-ray discs. Europe is still some way behind in this regard but here too we are seeing more of a push behind the format.”

“Much of the drive behind this increase is coming from growing consumer awareness and falling hardware prices, coupled with PS3 owners increasingly using their consoles for video playback,” adds Jack Wetherill, who focuses on the hardware business at Futuresource. “I would be amazed if we don’t see a Blu-ray player in the US at or below US$250 by the end of this year, and in order to stimulate consumer traffic in the holiday season who’s to say there won’t be a product at closer to US$200 In the UK, player prices will fall to around £149 and there may be one or two companies trying to better that.”

Source: Rapid TV News 2008

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